Recent retail growth could be peak of cycle

Retail sales are forecast to fall to 2.7% growth for 2015-16
Retail sales are forecast to fall to 2.7% growth for 2015-16 Claudia Baxter

DESPITE solid growth in trend retail sales of 4.7% in the year to June, a major economic forecaster says 2014-15 could be the peak of the cycle.

The latest Deloitte Access Economics forecast showed despite the mining construction boom slump, the firing housing market was helping consumers spend.

It said the record low interest rates, a housing supply shortage and continued growth in household goods retailing supported the strongest annual growth in retail spending since 2007-08.

"The good news is that household goods retailers have recently been joined by clothing retailers where sales growth has picked up considerably," the report said.

"Against this picture of strength, food retailing has been going through a slower period of growth, while department stores continue to underperform."

The report said the real, or inflation-adjusted, retail sales growth for the year to June 2014-15 was 3.3%.

It forecast a likely fall to 2.7% for 2015-16 and 2.4% in 2016-17.

Topics:  australia business retail

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